Alright folks, we have officially reached the portion of the football season where the math gets uncomfortable.

Lakeway Christian beat Boyd Buchanan 49–0.

Notre Dame lost to Boyd Buchanan 26–25.

Lakeway Christian beat Rhea County 28–0.

Notre Dame beat Rhea County 22–21.

Now, if football worked like eighth-grade algebra, I could stop writing right here. I'd tell everybody to skip the Homecoming game Friday night and meet me up North River for BBQ and banana pudding.

Fortunately, football does not work like eighth-grade algebra. If it did, Vanderbilt would have lost most of our games by 173 points during my college career based on the transitive property...thankfully, nothing that ridiculous ever happened...in 1993, we took pride in holding Florida to 150 points and then locked Tennessee down to about 130...but I digress...

Before we go any further, we need to consult the computers. Because apparently five football games are not enough anxiety for one Wednesday.

The On3 prediction model, which uses the Massey Ratings, currently has Lakeway Christian beating Notre Dame 38–20. That gives the Lions roughly a 79% chance of winning. Kenneth Massey is a mathematician and professor at Carson-Newman who has been building computer sports ratings since the 1990s. His system was respected enough to be one of the computer rankings used in the old Bowl Championship Series.

And Massey isn't sitting somewhere in Jefferson City watching Lakeway film and saying, "Good Lord, look at the size of that defensive tackle." The computer doesn't know Richmond Bell from Alexander Graham Bell. It looks at results.

Who did you play?

Did you win?

By how much?

How good were the teams you played?

And, here's the important part, how good were the teams THEY played?

All of those results are interconnected. When Boyd plays Lakeway, Notre Dame and somebody else, those games tell you something about Boyd, and indirectly about everybody connected to Boyd's schedule.

Think of it as Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon, except everybody is wearing shoulder pads and Kevin Bacon is a 6'3", 315-pound offensive guard from Morristown (which would have made Footloose a much better movie).

Massey does consider margin of victory, but with diminishing returns. So Lakeway beating Boyd 49–0 matters considerably more than beating Boyd 7–0. But the computer isn't awarding extra credit for every touchdown after the game has turned into a hostage situation.

And when you feed Lakeway's season into that machine, you can understand why the computer likes them.

49–14.

62–8.

49–0.

41–7.

28–0.

That's 229 points scored and 29 allowed, an average score of roughly 46–6. The last two teams to play Lakeway, Boyd and Rhea, have scored a combined total of zero points.

Let me be real here...We have an 800-pound rolling ball of chainsaws heading for Vermont Avenue Friday night...This is a category 5 Hurricane Warning. Make no mistake about it.

There is, however, one small problem.

The computer has already met Notre Dame.

Earlier this season, Massey projected Rhea County 40, Notre Dame 14.

Notre Dame won 22–21.

So with all due respect to Mr. Massey, who unquestionably understands mathematics considerably better than I do, this is why we continue requiring teenage boys to actually play the football game.

Let's take a look at Lakeway…

We venture back into the land of wonderfully-named quarterbacks this week. From Rhea County's Jaxton Schmitt to CAK's Supreme Court Justice-In-Waiting Seaton Moffett, we now get to tangle with #10 Josh Vineyard, Lakeway's 6'2", 180-pound junior gunslinger.

Absolutely top-tier name. If your name is Josh Vineyard, you likely spend the offseason sailing around Nantucket between photo shoots for high-end menswear.

Much respect to Mr. Vineyard...He's the total package. Through the first four games, MaxPreps had him at 891 passing yards:

• Against Webb, he went 15-of-21 for 285 yards and four TDs.
• Against Pope John Paul II, he threw for 240 yards and two TDs while completing 90% of his passes.
• Last week against Rhea he had a quieter night, 11-of-22 for 119 yards and one TD, because Lakeway didn't need him to throw it all over the yard.

As is that's not enough, the real sticky wicket may be #84 PK Hodari, a 5'9", 175-pound senior.

MaxPreps had him averaging 105.3 receiving yards per game with eight total touchdowns before the Rhea game. Against Webb, he had 8 catches for 130 yards and 2 TDs, plus 34 rushing yards. When their kicker was unavailable, he casually went out and kicked five PATs. Receiver. Runner. Return man. Kicker. If the concession stand gets backed up at halftime, I wouldn't be surprised if Hodari starts selling popcorn. The young man is a problem for opposing teams.

Vineyard-to-Hodari is the first thing I'd circle on Coach Hill's scouting report. But this isn't a one-receiver offense:

• #7 Jiden Butler, a 6'0" junior, had a 30-yard catch against Webb and a 53-yard TD run against Asheville Christian.
• Freshman #5 Isaiah Rogers turned a Vineyard completion into a 45-yard TD against Webb.
• TE/DE #11 Drew Austin caught a touchdown against Webb too.

And then they can run it. #4 Meade Coston (5'10", 170) is the primary back, with 17 carries for 75 yards against Rhea and 11 for 86 against Webb. Senior #6 Makai Martin (6'1", 185) gives them a physical option, with 61 yards and two TDs against Webb. Sophomore backup QB #9 Stone Underwood (are you kidding me?) also gets involved in run packages.

So yes, straight from central casting: when Josh Vineyard leaves the game, he is replaced by Stone Underwood.

I assume Kyle Chandler will be somewhere on their sideline telling everyone about clear eyes and full hearts.

Load the box and Vineyard throws it. Play light and they run it. Roll coverage toward Hodari and somebody else gets single coverage. And they're big. Look at the bodies up front:

• #67 Obinna Ichite: 6'3", 340
• #74 Sidikay Dikisongele: 6'3", 315
• #76 Noah Almazon Coahrane: 6'0", 335
• #50 Matthew Jez: 6'3", 255
• #55 Pryor Davidson: 6'1", 245
• #65 Jace Bosworth: 6'0", 245

So the football question this week is considerably more interesting than "Can Notre Dame hang with Lakeway?"

It's: What happens when the most physically imposing team Lakeway has faced runs into the most complete team Notre Dame has faced?

3 OBSERVATIONS

3). Lakeway has apparently decided touchdowns are a scarce natural resource and nobody else should be allowed to have them.

Twenty-nine points allowed in five games. Seven in the last three. Webb scored on a 39-yard pass in the first quarter. After that, Lakeway held them to 97 yards and five first downs the rest of the night.

This isn't a defense surviving because the offense keeps scoring 50. They're getting after people. Senior DT #0 Maki Bell (6'1", 260) is the centerpiece: 6.8 tackles per game and four sacks through the first four games. Sophomore OLB Eli Talley has two interceptions. Against Asheville, Lakeway produced six sacks and six TFLs, two of them sacks from Brayden Suffridge.

And Coach Greg Vandagriff has enough depth that he doesn't need anybody playing both ways all night.

That matters. Because eventually those enormous human beings start leaning on you.

2.) For once, our big people meet their big people.

We have spent much of this season admiring Notre Dame's offensive line, and for good reason: Dre Parks, Richmond Bell, etc. are some big Younguns.

At times this season, that group has looked less like a high-school offensive line and more Kevin Hart's security detail.

But Lakeway isn't showing up with a bunch of 185-pound defensive ends and a positive attitude. Their front has lived in opposing backfields for five weeks. And on the other side of the ball, our defensive front is about to spend the night with 300-pounders leaning on it.

There will be enough beef at the line of scrimmage Friday night to tongue-tie a cattle auctioneer.

Which is why I think this game comes down to something much less complicated than formations, motions and RPOs:

Can Notre Dame move Lakeway?

If our offensive line can create movement against that front, everything changes. Dremel Green doesn't need much. Providence learned that last Friday night. Give Turbo a crease and a routine running play becomes a track meet involving one participant. Dead serious here - unless the other team has Usain Bolt playing safety, no one is catching Dremel Green if he hits sideline past the second level. If you ever wondered what it would be like for a high schooler to have NFL speed, you are seeing it this year. Enjoy it because you are not likely to ever see it again.

Lakeway has spent five weeks imposing its physical will on everybody it has played. Well folks, they come down to Vermont Avenue Friday night, and nobody leaves Vermont Avenue without getting punched in the face a few times.

It is easy to run out front. That is all these guys have had to do. We are going to find out what kind of heart they have, and that will tell us what the fourth quarter looks like.

1). Lakeway's offense hasn't seen this defense.

Lakeway may be the most complete offense Notre Dame has faced. But Lakeway hasn't faced Notre Dame's defense either. This Irish defense has taken the ball away 16 times and given it up only 8, a +8 turnover margin. Against Providence, they didn't merely force turnovers. They turned them into points.

Against an opponent this good, stealing a possession and cashing it in isn't a nice bonus. It may be the difference between winning and losing. We need to win the turnover battle by three Friday night, and score off them.

2 QUESTIONS

2). Can Notre Dame make Lakeway uncomfortable?

This may be the entire game. Lakeway hasn't had to be uncomfortable yet. They haven't played a fourth quarter that mattered. They haven't had to wonder whether one mistake might decide the football game.

Notre Dame has. Repeatedly.

This team already knows what chaos feels like. We've been living there for a month.

So the objective Friday night may not be to jump out 21–0. It may simply be to still be standing there late in the third quarter saying:

Hello. We're still here.

• Make Lakeway play a football game they haven't had to play yet.
• Make them make decisions under pressure.
• Make Vineyard throw on third-and-seven when everybody in the stadium knows he's throwing.
• Make their defense tackle Michael Woodley and chase Dremel Green in the fourth quarter.

Let's see what Lakeway looks like when the scoreboard doesn't say 35–0.

1). Does comparative scoring mean anything?

We already did the math at the top. By the transitive property, Lakeway should beat Notre Dame by approximately 147 points. Or something.

That's why casinos don't let you place wagers using algebra.

Matchups matter. Turnovers matter. Field position matters. A holding penalty matters. A ball bouncing six inches one direction instead of the other matters.

And we are talking about seventeen-year-old boys here. Seventeen-year-old boys have a hard time keeping up with their shoes, which makes predicting anything with mathematical certainty when they are data inputs an especially ambitious exercise.

But we shouldn't dismiss those scores either. Lakeway didn't accidentally beat Boyd 49–0. They didn't accidentally hold Rhea scoreless. Those results tell us exactly what we need to know:

Notre Dame is about to play an outstanding football team.

Good.

We want that smoke, we won't flinch, and we don't break.

1 PREDICTION

I don't think Notre Dame can play sloppy and win this football game. You can't turn it over three times. You can't have 100 yards in penalties. You can't give up cheap explosives. Lakeway is too good.

But I don't believe Lakeway has encountered anything like what Notre Dame can put on the field, physically or mentally. And I don't believe the Irish are going to be particularly impressed by 5–0. Our guys will go into this game believing that they will win.

And they absolutely should.

I know what Irish Nation can do at home games. I know our guys can compete with anyone athletically. And I know that the Missionary Ridge magic that can pop up at any time and totally shake conventional wisdom.

This Friday night will take all of that. WE NEED YOU TO BE THERE, TO BE LOCKED IN TO THE GAME, AND TO SUPPORT THIS TEAM MORE LOUDLY THAN YOU EVER HAVE BEFORE.

So here it is:

This thing is still a football game when the fourth quarter starts. A takeaway inside the final two minutes decides it, and it goes our way.

Friday night will be the first time all season Lakeway looks up in the fourth quarter and realizes the other team hasn't gone away. They're going to discover something Rhea County and Boyd Buchanan already know:

Notre Dame and Irish Nation are going to GATA for 48 minutes.

Notre Dame 35, Lakeway 34.

DMGB.